About Me 0002: December 2011

Monday 26 December 2011

Making Money Easy

Via Peter Tchir, of TF Market Advisors,

So the market has completely latched on to the idea that LTRO is back-door QE.

Does this make any sense and can it even work?

So banks can borrow money for up to 3 years from the ECB. They can buy sovereign bonds with that money. Those bonds would be posted as collateral at the ECB.

The bull case would have banks buying lots of European Sovereign Debt with this program.

The purchases would be focused on Italian and Spanish bonds with maturities less than 3 years.

Buying bonds with a maturity longer than the repo facility is risky. The banks would need to be assured they can roll the debt at the end of the repo period. Some may be convinced, but the bulk of the purchases will be 3 years and in so that they loans can be repaid with the redemption proceeds.

Looking at 2 year yields, Italy and Spain offer some value, with yields of 3.2% and 4.8% respectively. Belgium at 2.4% may attract some interest. France is too tight at 0.9% to see its bonds purchased as part of the LTRO.

Ireland and Portugal yield 7.6% and 13.9% respectively. The yields are attractive, but the risk of default is too high in my opinion for even an aggressive bank to play around with. Ireland has mentioned the possibility of needing to renegotiate their package. Any bank that decides to load up on bonds of Portugal or Ireland would risk backlash from even optimistic investors.

So realistically, the bulls would hope for banks to load up on short dated Spanish and Italian bonds. Will LTRO really encourage so many new purchases? From a funding standpoint, these bonds were already relatively easy to finance. There is a developed and reasonably efficient repo market for these bonds. It would be difficult to get term financing, but was relatively easy to roll the repos. The ability to get the term financing makes it easier for a bank to put the trade on, but it is an incremental improvement, rather than a dramatic change.

So banks buy the bonds and earn the carry and all is good? Not so fast.

New Purchases vs Existing Positions

Banks are struggling to borrow money right now to finance their existing positions. How much of LTRO will be used to finance new bond purchases, rather than to replace existing forms of funding? Any bank that is already running a big sovereign debt position will look to LTRO to replace existing forms of financing. They can eliminate the repo roll risk on bonds they are financing in the repo market, or they could stop attempting to borrow in the interbank market. Those are positives for the banks as they can earn more carry (cheaper financing) and reduce roll risk (3 year term). But that doesn’t create new demand for bonds.

So the LTRO can help the banks with their existing funding problems without a doubt, but it is unclear that encourages new bond purchases.

How much can a bank do?

Let’s say a bank thinks this is the greatest idea ever. Could a bank do this with 100% of their assets. Yes, that is extreme, but it highlights the issues. A bank puts 100% of its assets into LTRO trades. What price would you pay for the equity? If all the bank had on its books was Italian bonds funded to maturity, how much is the equity worth? In MF Global’s case, it was worth ZERO, but there were some concerns about MF’s ability to continue to roll the position. The equity would be a huge leveraged bet on an Italian default. It would be binary. The income is leverage * net spread. The equity would be wiped out if there was a default. Banks will be tying up some amount of equity in the trade (LTRO shouldn’t be providing 100% financing, there is usually a haircut of some sort).

Would private equity gravitate towards banks making that bet, or would it be pulled. What about private creditors? Would you lend to a bank, when the bulk of their book is based on the theory that Italy and Spain won’t default. Here it is important to remember, that most banks are already overexposed to these bonds under the assumption they wouldn’t default. Banks have not accumulated these positions under the assumption that default was a possibility, that fear is relatively new. Will banks that are underweight Spanish and Italian bonds really decide now is the time to buy?

To buy now, you need to believe that the default risk is gone. Since NOTHING about this program addresses solvency, you cannot change your default assumptions. You would be betting that the problem is really liquidity driven and that this program can solve that. But how can you know that? You need to assume every other bank will add significantly to their exposure. No one bank can grow their exposure too large, without losing all access to the public debt markets and seeing their share price drop. So each bank can only add incrementally. Since the solvency problem hasn’t been addressed, you are buying in the hopes that some other bank buys too. If everyone buys and takes on even greater exposure to these weak countries, then the liquidity and debt issuance risk can be addressed. But what if strong banks don’t think it is smart to take on more risk.

Why would a bank that is afraid of default take on more risk? If you have largely avoided the problem, why would you participate now? You have been involved in government led negotiations on Greek debt (or at least you know people who have been). You are afraid that Ireland and Portugal will demand concessions. Will you really take quasi government money to buy government debt? The solvency hasn’t been addressed and you are exposing yourself to political manipulation. Is some carry really worth it? Will you really decide that you can’t find a better investment opportunity (like buying back your own debt or shares?).

Adding to your sovereign debt positions means you really believe there is no risk of default, and that using the program, won’t lead to renewed pressure on your business from politicians. I don’t see that happening. MF Global, although different, is also too fresh in everyone’s mind. If a bet becomes disproportionately large, it can kill you. Not only lenders may flee, but counterparties may also flee. It is possible that firms will choose not to do business with you. There is no shortage of counterparties that clients can deal with. Why do business with a bank that seems to be putting on risk that leads to a binary outcome?

Even without default risk, will there be mark to market margin requirements? Although the bonds are short dated, they could sell off again. If they sell off, you have to come up with margin for the repo agreement. Where will you get that? Probably from the ECB by posting more assets, but that is a risk. The mark to market risk and variation margin doesn’t go away (unless the ECB is providing all this money without variation margin). In a totally circular world, the more banks that participate in size in the program, the less likely that you will have mark to market margin calls, but if only a limited number of people participate, then the risk is high and you will be isolated by the market.

So it is a weird kind of Prisoner’s Dilemma. You want to act last. You want to make sure other banks are participating before committing yourself. By waiting, you would risk earning less carry, as the bonds you purchase will have increased in price, but that impact is minimal. If the leverage is high enough and the cost of funds is low enough, than that opportunity cost has minimal impact on your decision. If you load up on bonds and find that no other bank has participated, then you will stick out like a sore thumb. Investors won’t trust you, and you will likely have a mark to market loss, and will be on the front page of papers questioning why you participated and others didn’t. So it is smart to wait and see what others do. If everyone is waiting to see what someone else will do, we will likely see minimal participation. The weak banks will add to their all-in trade, but the stronger banks will focus on other business lines that can be profitable without so much intervention or risk.

So what will happen?

There will be significant interest in tapping the LTRO for existing positions. Some small amount of incremental purchases may occur at the time, but the banks will use this to finance existing positions. This should help bank credit spreads. It should also show up in measurements like OIS as it would reduce pressure in the interbank funding market. This is positive, but a relatively minor positive, and seems more than priced in.

We will likely see the yield curve in Spain and Italy steepen sharply at the 3 year point. Buying longer dated Italian paper will remain very risky and the banks will be more interested in retaining positions 3 years and in.

I think we have already seen the initial impact. Now we will wait to see rates do well, but will be disappointed. The big banks with risk management departments will decide to decline. The risk/reward just won’t be attractive to them. We will find out that places like DB don’t participate and that small weak banks do. That will actually start another spiral on those weak banks, as people will sell the shares and they won’t find lenders outside of the ECB as no one will trust their discipline. In the end, this won’t do much for the sovereign debt market, but will shine a spotlight on which banks should be shorted and will possibly expedite their default.

I’m still nervous that the IMF or China or someone has a real program, but up 35 points on SPX from yesterday on hope of LTRO seems overdone – again.

Let’s face it: These days, most of us have more than enough stuff.

Instead of buying more gadgets and do-dads for your loved ones and friends, have you considered making a charitable donation in their names instead? Or handing out charitable gift cards?

Since the best, feel-goodiest part of gift-giving is knowing you brightened someone else’s day, it makes sense to give your gifts to those who are truly in need — and your recipients might agree with that sentiment, too.

If you’d like to buck the consumerist tradition while still keeping the joy of seasonal gift-giving, there are more than a few alternatives. Best of all, they’re available online and are great choices if your gift-selection deliberations have left you with little time on your hands.

Here’s our list of easy online charitable gift-giving options, including charitable gift cards. We at VentureBeat hope you’ll consider making charitable causes part of your gift-giving plans now and throughout the year.

Donors Choose gift cards

Donors Choose is a project aimed at the needs of underprivileged classrooms and students. These gift cards can be loaded up with the amount of your choosing, then sent to the recipient who can decide where the funds should go. For example, they can choose a classroom to donate to based on location or subject material. The cards can be mailed, emailed or printed at home.

Unicef inspired gifts

Unicef’s mission is to save children’s lives through simple improvements such as vaccinations, proper nutrition and clean water. The United Nation’s organization has created gift categories on its site ranging from emergency help to immunizations to education. When you select a gift, you can dedicate it to a friend or loved one, who will then receive a card. Winter Child Survival Packs and Child Survival Food Packs are particularly appreciated around the winter holidays.

American Cancer Society donations

Through the Cancer.org website, you can make a charitable donation to honor or remember a friend, family member or loved one. You can choose for your donation to be used to benefit cancer research, a number of specific cancer types (such as breast cancer) or just send it to wherever the funds are most needed.

charity: water gifts

If clean water is something you’re passionate about, check into the gifts available from charity: water. The organization offers print-at-home cards, a pack of 10 cards to send in the mail or deliver in person, and personalized cards with DVDs and wristbands. All of the proceeds from the purchases are used to fund clean water projects.

World Vision gift for children

World Vision will help you select a gift, mostly focused on the needs of children, for people in needy or underdeveloped communities. This could be as simple as $22 for school supplies or as much as $100 for a woman’s small business or a well to provide clean water. When you select your gifts, you will be sent special cards including a picture and information about the impact that gift will have on those receiving it.

Salvation Army tributes

The ubiquitous Salvation Army bell ringers are going high tech this year, taking donations with Square credit card readers and smartphones. Bell-ringers outside the grocery store are only one way Salvation Army raises money for its many projects during the holidays. Salvation Army, which focuses on helping the homeless and destitute, allows you to honor a loved one when making a donation through its website. If you so choose, Salvation Army can send a special letter to your honoree.

Doctors Without Borders tribute gifts

Medical emergencies happen everywhere, all the time — especially during natural disasters and political unrest. Doctors Without Borders attempts to respond to those in greatest need with fewest resources. Through the organization’s tribute gifts, you can choose to send an e-card or a mailed letter to let your loved one know about the gift.

Oxfam America Unwrapped

For gift-giving, Oxfam will allow you to choose items such as mosquito nets, a dozen chicks or a school meal to be donated to those who suffer from poverty and hunger. The friend or loved on on your shopping list will get a card (via mail or email, or you can print it out yourself) with details about the gift.

Razoo giving cards

For these flexible gift cards, you choose the amount of the total donation, then print or email a card to the recipient. He or she can then choose a nonprofit organization to receive the funds. Another Razoo tool is the Holiday Wish, which allows you to raise funds for your favorite cause through a simple page that can be shared via email and social sites.

Habitat for Humanity Gifts from the heart

Habitat for Humanity is an organization that focuses on building safe, affordable housing for the homeless and at-risk. Through its website, the group lets you make a donation in someone’s name. When making your donation, just choose to have a card mailed or emailed to your gift recipient and choose the occasion of the gift.

Tuesday 20 December 2011

Who's Making Money

“I’ve seen the right people do the wrong things,” Mr. Mauricio says of his experience working with music’s biggest names as one of the nation’s top DJs. “One day I say I’m gonna write a book and that’s what I’ll retire on.” Celebrities can breathe easy though because the Miami mixer isn’t about to spill his secrets just yet. He’s more concerned with making crowds groove at bourgeois establishments like South Beach’s LIV and Hollywood’s Playhouse.

While most record spinners these days opt to use Serato, Mauricio comes from an era of lugging crates filled with vinyl. But the tattooed DJ, who cites DJ AM, Mark Ronson, and Kid Capri as influences, has always adapted to the change in the music climate. However, his foundation lies in two turntables and records. Tune in to Southern Florida’s Power 96 to get a taste of his fluid mixes on the wheels of steel, as he holds listeners down on the afternoon drive during his Traffic Jam mixshow. From hip-hop to house, this music industry veteran runs through classics to new cuts.

As a member of the elite DJ management company S.K.A.M. Artist, Mr. Mauricio has taken his party rocking skills worldwide. He’s the reason songs get ingrained into clubgoers’ psyche and never leave. The same artists he mixes in his sets are those he drops some words of wisdom on, from Rick Ross to Rihanna to Calvin Harris. The trendsetter also lets loose on Page Six mentions and the value in production. Check out his story.

1. How long have you been a DJ?
Seventeen years, since I was 16.

2. What are you currently working on?
In Miami, I have residencies at LIV and Wall on Fridays, Thursdays at Arkadia, I do Pangea on Saturdays at the Hard Rock Casino. And when I’m in New York I’ll do Greenhouse on Tuesdays and 1OAK on Fridays once a month. When I’m in L.A., I’ll do Drai’s on Friday and Playhouse on Thursdays.

I’m back on the radio. I did the radio for eight years at The Beat [103.5] and now I signed a deal at Power 96. I’m there doing the Traffic Jam from 4:30 p.m. to 6 p.m.

3. How did you get your first big break?
I was working the door at Liquid, like back in ’96 or ’97. My roommate at the time was best friends with the owner. It was a big club owned by Chris Paciello and Madonna and some big promoters at the time. The resident DJ at the time was DJ Radamus, who was a big hip-hop DJ on the beach in those days, and he was sick and they needed someone at the last minute to fill in. My roommate knew that I DJ’d, so he told the owners. I kinda was dumped in there and ended up DJing with Radamus’ records. I played well enough that they ended up giving me Friday nights at Liquid when I was 17. And that being the biggest club at the time, then every other club that opened up wanted me [to work] there.

4. Moment when you knew you had made it?
I’ve done so many crazy events where things have happened in the club. To me, one of the first times when I was like, “Sh*t, I fu**in’ made it,” was when I was 20, I was DJing at Opium Garden and Christina Aguilera had just come out with “Genie in a Bottle”—she was a big deal. I did an event, she came in the booth. The next day I woke up and I had a call from her and her manager. They flew me to L.A. to do like her birthday at her house and two clubs in Hollywood. It happened so fast that I realized the bracket of fame and money that was being put around me.

5. Favorite artists right now?
I’ll roll with someone like Rick Ross. It’s funny because if you would’ve asked that in 2007, I would’ve said the same thing. He’s like that dude. Me personally, I’ve seen him come from nothing to something. He weathered that shit with 50 Cent. In the last year, who’s bigger than him? He’s up there with Lil Wayne and Jay-Z and Kanye. And being from Miami, I’m one of those people I hold down anyone from here—he stayed true to his hustle. And I also like someone like Calvin Harris; his sound is what I really like.

6. Artists to look out for in 2012?
I think that dance music is turning that corner again. It lost its steam a few years ago. Dance music in the last year has been coming back. People like Calvin Harris are gonna be humungous in 2012. Swedish House Mafia will break out more commercially. In 2012, you’re gonna see more big artists do uptempo dance stuff. I think for so many years there have been big DJs that have produced in dance music but in hip-hop people go, “Oh, that’s DJ Premier, that’s Khaled.” The Rihanna record is really Calvin Harris featuring Rihanna, not Rihanna featuring Calvin Harris. With David Guetta, it’s David Guetta featuring Kid Cudi, it’s David Getta featuring Nicki Minaj, so that ["We Found Love"] record was so backwards to me. Calvin Harris has like two, three records now that will be huge on radio.

7. What do you consider your greatest accomplishment?
I think my biggest accomplishment is being able to have flexibility in my life and I don’t have set boundaries. DJing opened the door for everything. Since I was 17, I haven’t had to answer to anybody and have been fortunate enough not to have a 9 to 5. Every time I complain about, I just realize if I want to go to Paris today, I can go to the airport and get on a plane and pretty much hustle a gig out there. I get the luxury of getting to go to the best places in the world and work and hang out at the same time. The money is good, it comes and goes—I’ve had more money than I’ve ever thought I would have by 25. I sit here on a Sunday and I’m like I was in L.A., New York, then this place while the average person plans one vacation a year.

8. Future goals?
Well, I’m back on the radio now and traveling is kinda heavy but the production thing is always in the back of my head. It comes from the biggest artists to the smallest artists, like, “Why don’t you work on production? Why don’t you work on an album?” And for like 10 years I’ve been saying I’m gonna do it and it just fizzled out. But my biggest thing is to focus on production for the next year. I’ve worked all the facets of being a DJ and the other branch is doing production. That’s the way I want to go, where I can see some turn around on iTunes and get some credit for it.

9. What record always gets the party started?
I think a record you can always play is probably like Busta Rhymes’ “Put Your Hands Where My Eyes Could See,” where you just hear the drums and then the verse comes in, and it’s for white people, Spanish people, black people. Then something really current that’s big is Rihanna’s “We Found Love” and you hear the keyboard come in and everybody knows it.

10. What’s your advice to aspiring DJs?
Don’t do it for the money, don’t do it for the quick fame. With the invention of Serato it kinda cheapened and water down the whole profession of doing it. I always tell people if the day came again where you had to lug around five or six boxes [of records] there would literally be 80 percent less DJs in this world. My advice is stay true to your craft and do it ’cause you love it, not ’cause you wanna pick up girls or get a Page Six shout-out or something like that. At the end of the day, the DJs who do it for that are see-through, you can tell ’cause they’re not knowledgeable to the music.

“F**k It, Just Dance!” Mix

To find out more about Mr. Mauricio, visit his website and follow him on Twitter @MrMauricio.

Posted in Hey Mr. DJ | Permalink

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Monday 19 December 2011

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Thursday 15 December 2011

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.

2. Look at if it's additional cost-effective to merely unhealthy the appliance for any brand-new one than to have that mended by the specialist. Free estimations could be distributed by a number of appliance repair chicago
online or higher the unit. Like that, you won't need to have to book a genuine assistance require a technician immediately and find priced expensive expenses for any easy restoration that you can also do alone. Here, you'll be able to pre-judge regardless of whether you must mend or maybe exchange this faulty equipment
.

3. One more aspect that will assist you to contemplate whether or not you must hire an expert appliance repair specialist would be the usual life expectancy of an kitchen appliance. Execute a minor online research to discover if your product can be far too outdated of course, if mending it'll you need to be a new waste materials involving income and also time period
.

4. In a few aged types of dishwashers, washing machine's, in addition to refrigerators, many people generally have an improved quality in relation to his or her internal elements when compared with present low-end models. Globalization offers come to having certain modest regions of several home appliances for being stated in volume in several places in the world; this contributed to the output involving low cost, relatively low-quality internal pieces. There are a few great and extremely tough old-model appliances that could be really worth fixing
.

5. A simple react associated with unplugging and then inserting rear an electric product can on occasion distinct the problem intended for moderate electric doesn't work properly on washing machines
.

6. Before you get a professional appliance repair technician ahead above in addition to conduct your mend available for you, you should check out the various search engines for appliance repair study materials that will explain the issue and also found common do-it-yourself steps. Online equipment manuals usually are cost-free and might supply you total information on tips on how to carry out modest maintenance tasks with regard to specific models of equipment
.

7. Should you have your knack for this in addition to will want to perform specialized residence repairs by yourself, you have to perform like an established as well as wear safe practices glasses and steel-toed safe practices sneakers. Additionally it is good sense for you to unplug the appliance very first before starting unscrewing something. Razor-sharp tips are mixed together inside dryers which means you must be cautious whenever working away at 1
.

Why you should hire a professional appliance repair service?

Selecting a specialist to perform a appliance repair could keep you by losing your time and efforts trying out this processes of any residence machine for you to don't realize. Seeking to repair it by yourself may even give you additional deterioration on your appliance. You will find a lot of affordable appliance repair solutions getting advertised on the web or perhaps about the phonebook. You'll be able to often speak to the right one who is going to resolve whichever not working appliance you could have in the home
.

A number of house product objects that could be a lot more cost-effective to repair when compared with to switch. Microwaves, refrigerators, freezers, cookers, dryers, stoves, for example. enhance your day-to-day lifestyles; we occasionally actually come across ease and comfort by employing these. When they find damaged or go wrong properly, removing these individuals immediately in favor of a new one will not be financially appear. You will find countless instances wherein your not working is very slight, in support of a number of small corrections or maybe straightforward fixes may make an item become as well as brand new yet again
.

Pros exactly who deliver residence repair solutions are offered on-line or even about the phonebook, along with most of them are going to are available over or perhaps talk with an individual for the cell phone to provide free quotes upon feasible costs intended for correcting a specific residence kitchen appliance
.

What to look for when hiring a professional appliance repair service?

Consult from family as well as buddies primary with regard to advice. People as their ideas you confidence are usually the most beneficial way to obtain facts relating to various other household appliance repair providers that they have tried out just before.

If you are using possibly the on-line appliance repair forum or perhaps an online advert of your commercial appliance repair business, then you definitely must be sure who's states “licensed in addition to insured” to enable you to ensure you will be having the services from the specialized who have undergone any elegant appliance repair training. This company’s condition licenses also needs to end up being something else you need to look for. The actual license range should be legitimate plus the insurance policy needs to be current. Additionally, you must analysis precisely lengthy of which appliance repair organization has been doing company along with on which areas it operates; a firm with a large amount of local heritage is often far more trusted since it will go as a result of a number of program plans to maintain the expert name in the profession. Yet another important thing never to forget about while looking for a great appliance repair service is usually whether or not the organization is usually detailed inside key world wide web internet directories much like the orange internet pages, Google roadmaps, Askjeeve community, etc. The item has to be stated somewhere; an extremely unknown one could just be a great unskilled startup company or perhaps a fraud. You have to furthermore keep in mind that appliance repair chicago
which usually publicize intensely may well charge a lot more than those people tiny neighborhood people which depend a lesser amount of about advertising although weighty on the word-of-mouth spread in their very good restoration providers.

Once you have ultimately picked that appliance repair business to travel together with, chances are you'll make inquiries pointedly regarding the title on the technical assistant that will be servicing anyone as well as promptly inquire to help talk with your ex very first. Now, it is strongly recommended that you simply ask your specialist just how long he or she has become mending devices. Provide the tech the important points on the problem. Offer every one of the indicators so that she or he can imagine achievable causes of the applying breakdown. The specialist will likely provide some achievable brings about with the machine trouble possibly previous to he or she provides the chance to appear in excess of to your dwelling. Lastly, request a good estimate of the mend expense after you have layed out the situation. An established tech is obviously inclined to offer one particular

It’s crucial that you keep in mind that when you're searching for a good appliance repair company, make sure to verify their own popularity. Uncover what additional prior clients must say about them. Go to: www.aaaasc.com to learn more concerning locating a reputable appliance repair in Chicago or just research by utilizing appliance repair Chicago. Once you have the website, take a look at their support locations to determine if they have got insurance coverage in which your property is positioned. Next call the number for the region and plan an appointment.

Saturday 3 December 2011

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